What Will China Do With The Hong Kong Protests?

August 31, 2019

Protests in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (SAR) -- which began in early June with demonstrators denouncing a proposed law to permit the extradition of SAR residents to the mainland to be tried in Chinese Communist courts -- have entered their 12th week and show no signs of abating. If anything, they are becoming increasingly strident, with calls for the resignation of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam's administration, among other broadening demands . The unfolding events present the Communist Party leadership in Beijing with a serious dilemma: to quell the protests with military force or wait until they die down.

According to a recent analysis in Bloomberg:

"In theory, [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] could quickly do away with Hong Kong's autonomy and activate the city's garrison overnight. But the likelihood of mobilizing troops remains low and the fallout from doing so -- for both China and Xi personally -- is potentially much higher than dealing with the political and economic repercussions of the protests, not least because he's already engaged in a damaging trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump."

The Hong Kong protests reportedly were a topic of debate at this year's annual meeting of current and former Communist Chinese leaders, which was held in Beidaihe in early August. The discussions likely included possible courses of action that the Xi government could take, such as encouraging Hong Kong's business community to call for an end to the demonstrations, for the purpose of restoring economic stability by reversing recent negative trends in retail sales, tourist-generated income and nervousness among foreign investors.